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***Dr. Hooves' 2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis - Free!***
May 3rd, 2018
Derby Time! A better than average field, with the usual half dozen or more that could win, Baffert with the chalk, and a shipper from Dubai that handicappers love or hate, and the usual aspect of being able to make a strong case, for or AGAINST, many of the top contenders. Should be a good race, though almost impossible to handicap, so I'll be investing a token amount on my favorite longshot and waiting for the Belmont. After 32 years of watching and betting on the Derby live, I'll also be taking a break for a writing workshop in Portland on Saturday afternoon. Oh, the humanity!
Another thing that strikes my curiosity is the morning line odds, and how they differ from what bettors will actually put their hard-earned cash down on. If I was running a sportsbook or racebook, I believe it'd be an interesting play to come up with future bets related to closing odds. I'll taking a closer look at horses who's odds are well under what I predict, and determining if there's any hot money coming in on them. But I digress, and now to go 2 for 33 in the Derby if I pick the winner.
Here's my free analysis, and it's worth every penny. Good luck to all! (but especially me)
Projected order of finish with (Morning Line Odds, My Predicted Odds) and comments:
************************************************************************
# 12 Enticed (30-1, 19-1) When I look at the connections, I see a horse that's been pointed for the Derby since before he was conceived. Probably not cranked for the Wood since he had enough points to get in, up close in fast pace, not persevered with in stretch after getting bumped, and forced down to the inside - not the place to be that day at Aqueduct. Grinding runner finished behind Vino, but now offers much better value in the Derby. Looked good in Gotham, ran down longshot while getting clean trip wide, eased up near the wire, still green. Big, gangly and needs clean trip, and has won at CD. Sire Medaglia d'Oro has had some fine runners, including horse-of-the-year Rachel Alexandra, Songbird, and Violence - a promising young sire in his own right. I actually believe some others more likely to win, but he offers the best value - so, today he gets my dough.
# 7 Justify (3-1, 5-2) Baffert's newbie looks like the real deal. A Derby winner that's not raced as a two-year old hasn't won since Apollo in 1882. Umm, that'd be 136 years ago. However, horses that don't run at two usually have health issues, but Justify looks like the late blooming star, with three triple digit Beyers to his credit - the one to beat, in spite of his small field wins in California. He's fast, and the clocker at CD is impressed. If you just want to cash a ticket, bet him to show.
# 6 Good Magic (12-1, 9-1) Working like a champ, son of Curlin and BC Juvenile winner could run big. Bred for the distance, his mommy by Hard Spun who loved CD and ran second in the Derby, and for what it's worth gets my favorite jockey Jose Ortiz, and almost guaranteed to get a good trip. Should be right there.
# 9 Hofburg (20-1, 15-1) bred well, looks better for Belmont, BUT moving forward, will need luck closing. Training like a machine, and another horse with only three starts. Plenty of upside possible, but others will argue not enough seasoning. Conservative trainer expressing confidence with this one, wise guy horse should have him lower odds, but still decent value.
# 5 Audible (8-1, 7-1) - doesn't work like much, but just likes to win. NY Bred should make the distance - just keeps chugging, probably not another Funny Cide - Jockey JV picks Vino Rosso over this one, so gives pause, but certainly has a better post than VR. I thought he'd be chalk until Justify freaked in the SA Derby a week later, Clocker says he looks better in morning works than before FL Derby.
# 20 Combatant (50-1, 90-1) 4th in Arkansas Derby, very slow pace, closed a bit in Rebel off even pace, bred for the distance, could clunk up for a piece, looks like he could step forward. Wide post doesn't hurt as much with his running style. Along with Enticed, I have a small futures wager on him (57-1 in pool 3), so I'm a bit prejudiced here. And should not have made that bet.
# 10 My Boy Jack (30-1, 25-1) Got warm in morning work, some concern. Seasoned with 10 starts, and should be last entering the first turn. Jocky Kent D. will give him a good ride late, but not sure he's quite good enough, as on paper he looks like he's peaked.
# 15 Instilled Regard (50-1, 80-1) Very sly trainer Hollendorfer, interesting longshot. Bred for the distance, and if he gets some pace to shoot at, he could clunk up for a slice at a huge, huge price. Finished 10 lengths behind Justify in last - but if you like the top pair from California, it's not much of a stretch to have him around at the end.
# 17 Solomini (30-1, 24-1) Baffert's “other” horse, which has enough breeding to get there with the right trip, since he's by Curlin, and sort of looks like him too. Prat is an awesome jockey, and I would not be surprised to see him hang around off a middle of the pack trip for a slice.
# 18 Vino Rosso (12-1, 10-1) Wood, wide, out of trouble, closed well off fast pace, and bumped Enticed in the lane. Good inside trip in Tampa Derby, nothing left on turn to go with leaders, came back on a little in lane. Working well in the mornings. JV picked him over Audible, but got a much worse post. He's not much value, but appears to have some upside.
**************Mendoza Line goes here******************
# 4 Flameaway (30-1, 25-1) - speed, bred for the distance and plucky in his races, but may fall victim to plenty of pace pressure up front.
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (8-1, 12-1) Owns second highest average of speed figures - either it means he and Justify are really good, or time is measured differently in California. Very consistent, and appears to be a slight overlay - except Clocker mentions he's taking a while to warm up in the morning. Unusual characteristic may not bode well for a horse running in the huge Derby field, with huge crowd. Prefer others that are more laid back and relaxed. Another son of Medaglia d'Oro, but breeding offset by low profile connections.
# 2 Free Drop Billy (30-1, 40-1) bred for the distance, but hasn't shown much recently. Almost crashed in the Bluegrass, suppressing his speed figure. Move forward quite possible, as he'll be closing from the clouds, one of many longshots that could get 3rd or 4th, though warm in morning works, and two hole is enough in this field to ensure enough trouble - to keep him under the Mendoza line.
# 8 Lone Sailor (50-1, 60-1) Nice horse, but just 1 for 8 lifetime. Not bred for the distance, and looks like the kind of horse that finishes mid-pack. Stunning work a couple of weeks ago, but not sure it's going to be enough to get there in this field. Toss.
# 13 Bravazo (50-1, 88-1) decently bred, but will need some miracle juice from D. Wayne Lukas to be around at the end. Will want to be forwardly placed, won't get that, and won't like it. Toss.
# 14 Mendelssohn (5-1, 6-1) Will not be surprised if this horse wins by five, or runs last by 25. Huge visual win in UAW Derby when inside speed favoring HUGE bias, but the TF rating of 80 by second place finisher Rayya (and a filly at that) screams he didn't beat much. Let's see how Rayya runs in the Oaks. Foreign horses shipping to the States for two-year and three-year old races ON DIRT don't have a high rate of success, regardless of connections or breeding. Has shown ability to ship and run well twice before, but the word quarantine related to a 3YO is the kiss of death. Also leery of the camera work at Dubai distorting things. Back in 2006 when Discrete Cat crushed foes in the UAE Derby, I thought that horse was really something - but he couldn't run past a mile here in the U.S. It's the old adage about streaks - you can win many times, and only lose once. Or in this case, keep tossing the foreigners until one actually wins the Derby. Horrible underlay, and Clocker not impressed today by his appearance on track. Toss with some risk, and may regret. But hey, I'm one for 32 in the Derby.
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (30-1, 55-1) poor breeding for the distance, speed horse quite likely to get burned up and quit, even if the track is speed favoring. Leaves Derby dream unfulfilled.
# 1 Firenze Fire (50-1, 80-1) poor breeding for the distance, looks like he peaked last year. Hasn't moved forward, will likely get traffic problems from the inside - toss.
# 16 Magnum Moon (6-1, 14-1) In Arkansas Derby, got to lead in very slow pace, drew off wide in lane, Quip hung on for second at the rail, crushed foes in Rebel just off even pace. While he's undefeated, his last two he's drifted in the stretch (read tired), and not crazy about his breeding for the Derby. Another that may blow up my tickets, but he's an underlay in this field. Toss.
# 19 Noble Indy (30-1, 60-1) Speed horse, wide post, poor breeding for 10 furlongs - no thanks. Toss. My choice for last.
Potential Wagers:
***************
$20 Place,Show on # 12 ($40) (I have a couple of small future bets already on him to win)
$2 Exacta Key Box 12 with 5-6-7-9-20 ($20)
50 cent Trifecta P/W 12 with ALL with 5-6-7-9-20 ($45)
$1 Superfecta P/W: 12 with 6-7 with 5-6-7-9-20 with 5-6-7-9-10-15-17-18-20 ($56)
Total Investment: $161
May 3rd, 2018
Derby Time! A better than average field, with the usual half dozen or more that could win, Baffert with the chalk, and a shipper from Dubai that handicappers love or hate, and the usual aspect of being able to make a strong case, for or AGAINST, many of the top contenders. Should be a good race, though almost impossible to handicap, so I'll be investing a token amount on my favorite longshot and waiting for the Belmont. After 32 years of watching and betting on the Derby live, I'll also be taking a break for a writing workshop in Portland on Saturday afternoon. Oh, the humanity!
Another thing that strikes my curiosity is the morning line odds, and how they differ from what bettors will actually put their hard-earned cash down on. If I was running a sportsbook or racebook, I believe it'd be an interesting play to come up with future bets related to closing odds. I'll taking a closer look at horses who's odds are well under what I predict, and determining if there's any hot money coming in on them. But I digress, and now to go 2 for 33 in the Derby if I pick the winner.
Here's my free analysis, and it's worth every penny. Good luck to all! (but especially me)
Projected order of finish with (Morning Line Odds, My Predicted Odds) and comments:
************************************************************************
# 12 Enticed (30-1, 19-1) When I look at the connections, I see a horse that's been pointed for the Derby since before he was conceived. Probably not cranked for the Wood since he had enough points to get in, up close in fast pace, not persevered with in stretch after getting bumped, and forced down to the inside - not the place to be that day at Aqueduct. Grinding runner finished behind Vino, but now offers much better value in the Derby. Looked good in Gotham, ran down longshot while getting clean trip wide, eased up near the wire, still green. Big, gangly and needs clean trip, and has won at CD. Sire Medaglia d'Oro has had some fine runners, including horse-of-the-year Rachel Alexandra, Songbird, and Violence - a promising young sire in his own right. I actually believe some others more likely to win, but he offers the best value - so, today he gets my dough.
# 7 Justify (3-1, 5-2) Baffert's newbie looks like the real deal. A Derby winner that's not raced as a two-year old hasn't won since Apollo in 1882. Umm, that'd be 136 years ago. However, horses that don't run at two usually have health issues, but Justify looks like the late blooming star, with three triple digit Beyers to his credit - the one to beat, in spite of his small field wins in California. He's fast, and the clocker at CD is impressed. If you just want to cash a ticket, bet him to show.
# 6 Good Magic (12-1, 9-1) Working like a champ, son of Curlin and BC Juvenile winner could run big. Bred for the distance, his mommy by Hard Spun who loved CD and ran second in the Derby, and for what it's worth gets my favorite jockey Jose Ortiz, and almost guaranteed to get a good trip. Should be right there.
# 9 Hofburg (20-1, 15-1) bred well, looks better for Belmont, BUT moving forward, will need luck closing. Training like a machine, and another horse with only three starts. Plenty of upside possible, but others will argue not enough seasoning. Conservative trainer expressing confidence with this one, wise guy horse should have him lower odds, but still decent value.
# 5 Audible (8-1, 7-1) - doesn't work like much, but just likes to win. NY Bred should make the distance - just keeps chugging, probably not another Funny Cide - Jockey JV picks Vino Rosso over this one, so gives pause, but certainly has a better post than VR. I thought he'd be chalk until Justify freaked in the SA Derby a week later, Clocker says he looks better in morning works than before FL Derby.
# 20 Combatant (50-1, 90-1) 4th in Arkansas Derby, very slow pace, closed a bit in Rebel off even pace, bred for the distance, could clunk up for a piece, looks like he could step forward. Wide post doesn't hurt as much with his running style. Along with Enticed, I have a small futures wager on him (57-1 in pool 3), so I'm a bit prejudiced here. And should not have made that bet.
# 10 My Boy Jack (30-1, 25-1) Got warm in morning work, some concern. Seasoned with 10 starts, and should be last entering the first turn. Jocky Kent D. will give him a good ride late, but not sure he's quite good enough, as on paper he looks like he's peaked.
# 15 Instilled Regard (50-1, 80-1) Very sly trainer Hollendorfer, interesting longshot. Bred for the distance, and if he gets some pace to shoot at, he could clunk up for a slice at a huge, huge price. Finished 10 lengths behind Justify in last - but if you like the top pair from California, it's not much of a stretch to have him around at the end.
# 17 Solomini (30-1, 24-1) Baffert's “other” horse, which has enough breeding to get there with the right trip, since he's by Curlin, and sort of looks like him too. Prat is an awesome jockey, and I would not be surprised to see him hang around off a middle of the pack trip for a slice.
# 18 Vino Rosso (12-1, 10-1) Wood, wide, out of trouble, closed well off fast pace, and bumped Enticed in the lane. Good inside trip in Tampa Derby, nothing left on turn to go with leaders, came back on a little in lane. Working well in the mornings. JV picked him over Audible, but got a much worse post. He's not much value, but appears to have some upside.
**************Mendoza Line goes here******************
# 4 Flameaway (30-1, 25-1) - speed, bred for the distance and plucky in his races, but may fall victim to plenty of pace pressure up front.
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (8-1, 12-1) Owns second highest average of speed figures - either it means he and Justify are really good, or time is measured differently in California. Very consistent, and appears to be a slight overlay - except Clocker mentions he's taking a while to warm up in the morning. Unusual characteristic may not bode well for a horse running in the huge Derby field, with huge crowd. Prefer others that are more laid back and relaxed. Another son of Medaglia d'Oro, but breeding offset by low profile connections.
# 2 Free Drop Billy (30-1, 40-1) bred for the distance, but hasn't shown much recently. Almost crashed in the Bluegrass, suppressing his speed figure. Move forward quite possible, as he'll be closing from the clouds, one of many longshots that could get 3rd or 4th, though warm in morning works, and two hole is enough in this field to ensure enough trouble - to keep him under the Mendoza line.
# 8 Lone Sailor (50-1, 60-1) Nice horse, but just 1 for 8 lifetime. Not bred for the distance, and looks like the kind of horse that finishes mid-pack. Stunning work a couple of weeks ago, but not sure it's going to be enough to get there in this field. Toss.
# 13 Bravazo (50-1, 88-1) decently bred, but will need some miracle juice from D. Wayne Lukas to be around at the end. Will want to be forwardly placed, won't get that, and won't like it. Toss.
# 14 Mendelssohn (5-1, 6-1) Will not be surprised if this horse wins by five, or runs last by 25. Huge visual win in UAW Derby when inside speed favoring HUGE bias, but the TF rating of 80 by second place finisher Rayya (and a filly at that) screams he didn't beat much. Let's see how Rayya runs in the Oaks. Foreign horses shipping to the States for two-year and three-year old races ON DIRT don't have a high rate of success, regardless of connections or breeding. Has shown ability to ship and run well twice before, but the word quarantine related to a 3YO is the kiss of death. Also leery of the camera work at Dubai distorting things. Back in 2006 when Discrete Cat crushed foes in the UAE Derby, I thought that horse was really something - but he couldn't run past a mile here in the U.S. It's the old adage about streaks - you can win many times, and only lose once. Or in this case, keep tossing the foreigners until one actually wins the Derby. Horrible underlay, and Clocker not impressed today by his appearance on track. Toss with some risk, and may regret. But hey, I'm one for 32 in the Derby.
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (30-1, 55-1) poor breeding for the distance, speed horse quite likely to get burned up and quit, even if the track is speed favoring. Leaves Derby dream unfulfilled.
# 1 Firenze Fire (50-1, 80-1) poor breeding for the distance, looks like he peaked last year. Hasn't moved forward, will likely get traffic problems from the inside - toss.
# 16 Magnum Moon (6-1, 14-1) In Arkansas Derby, got to lead in very slow pace, drew off wide in lane, Quip hung on for second at the rail, crushed foes in Rebel just off even pace. While he's undefeated, his last two he's drifted in the stretch (read tired), and not crazy about his breeding for the Derby. Another that may blow up my tickets, but he's an underlay in this field. Toss.
# 19 Noble Indy (30-1, 60-1) Speed horse, wide post, poor breeding for 10 furlongs - no thanks. Toss. My choice for last.
Potential Wagers:
***************
$20 Place,Show on # 12 ($40) (I have a couple of small future bets already on him to win)
$2 Exacta Key Box 12 with 5-6-7-9-20 ($20)
50 cent Trifecta P/W 12 with ALL with 5-6-7-9-20 ($45)
$1 Superfecta P/W: 12 with 6-7 with 5-6-7-9-20 with 5-6-7-9-10-15-17-18-20 ($56)
Total Investment: $161
